Sunderland prepare to host Liverpool in a Premier League clash that carries weight for both sides. As the Black Cats look to keep their strong home record intact, Liverpool arrive intent on strengthening their grip on a top six spot. With contrasting recent fortunes and statistical trends, this matchup is shaping up to offer plenty of tactical intrigue at the Stadium of Light.
Sunderland come into the fixture occupying ninth place in the table after 25 matches, boasting a record of 9 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses. Their goal difference sits at -2, with 27 goals scored and 29 conceded, highlighting a campaign defined by resilience but also a need to sharpen up at both ends of the pitch.
On the other side, Liverpool are pushing for European qualification from sixth position. Their 11 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats have delivered a positive goal difference of +5, tallying 40 goals for and 35 against across 25 matches. While high-scoring, defensive lapses remain a challenge for Arne Slot’s men.
Examining the Black Cats’ recent results, Sunderland have notched up two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six games. They have averaged 1.17 goals per game in that period, conceding at a rate of 1.83, with an average possession figure of just over 51%. These stats suggest a team competitive but not always clinical in both penalty areas.
Home form is where Régis Le Bris’ side has shone brightest. Sunderland are undefeated in 80% of their last 40 home Premier League games and have managed to win 50% of the last 14 home matches. In their three most recent games at Stadium of Light, they have picked up two victories and a draw, conceding a miserly 0.33 goals per match on average while scoring at 1.67. Their clean sheet rate at home in the league is an impressive 42% across the last 12 outings.
Liverpool’s recent league form is more mixed. Although they have won half of their last 22 matches in all competitions, the club have drawn or lost four of their most recent six league matches. Interestingly, they are undefeated in 11 of their last 13 league fixtures, a testament to determination, though wins have not always followed. Their record away from Anfield is steady: Liverpool are undefeated in 88% of their last 8 away matches in all competitions.
Looking at the head-to-head, Sunderland have struggled to assert themselves at home to Liverpool in recent years. Over the last two such encounters, they have drawn once and lost once. More broadly, three of the last five meetings between the teams ended in draws, suggesting these fixtures can be closely fought affairs.
Tactical shape and selection are affected by injuries on both sides. For Sunderland, Bertrand Traoré (knee), Harrison Jones (unknown), Jocelin Ta Bi (ankle), and Granit Xhaka (ankle) are all unavailable, narrowing midfield options especially. Liverpool will cope without Jeremie Frimpong (thigh), Stefan Bajcetic (surgery), Alexander Isak (broken fibula), Conor Bradley (knee), and Giovanni Leoni (cruciate ligament).
The most probable starting elevens, based on recent lineups and currently available players, are as follows:
Sunderland
Goalkeeper: Robin Roefs
Defenders: Dan Ballard, Omar Alderete, Reinildo Mandava, Nordi Mukiele
Midfielders: Noah Sadiki, Enzo Le Fée, Chemsdine Talbi, Habib Diarra, Trai Hume
Attackers: Brian Brobbey
Liverpool
Goalkeeper: Alisson
Defenders: Virgil van Dijk, Ibrahima Konaté, Milos Kerkez, Joe Gomez
Midfielders: Alexis Mac Allister, Florian Wirtz, Ryan Gravenberch, Cody Gakpo, Mohamed Salah
Attackers: Hugo Ekitiké
Liverpool are particularly prolific in attack, averaging 2.83 goals per game across their last six fixtures. Their total shots per match (21.17) and shots on target (6.67) point to sustained offensive intent, coupled with typically high possession rates (over 56%).
For Sunderland, defensive discipline will be key, especially considering Liverpool’s ability to create chances in volume. However, Sunderland have not been easy to break down at home lately and will look to capitalize on this solidity. The two sides are closely matched based on the latest head-to-heads, with Sunderland causing Liverpool difficulty in recent fixtures at this ground.
Prediction algorithms point towards a tightly contested match, pegging the likelihood of a draw at 42%. With both teams showing strengths and vulnerabilities, the margins look slim. A 1-1 result appears the most likely scenario based on current trends and available personnel.