The early-round upsets are what make March Madness one of the greatest spectacles in the sporting world.
This year’s opening round has several interesting matchups that present possible stumbling blocks for higher-seeded teams, and we’ve found two games on both Thursday and Friday that offer opportunities for Cinderella to find her glass slipper.
Here are my favorite upset predictions and March Madness picks for the first round.
No. 11 VCU vs No. 6 North Carolina
The St. John’s Red Storm should have been seeded higher, and that misplacement could cost them an early exit.
The Northern Iowa Panthers are my opening round long shot. Since the start of February, the Panthers have ranked in the Top 15 in 3-point accuracy. That’s important for a team that operates as slowly as it does. UNI is also fifth in eFG% in that span.
St. John’s hasn’t been a good perimeter shooting team all season. That’s problematic vs. a UNI pack-line defense that ranks Top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency, eFG%, and 3-point defense.
The point total is one of the lowest on the board for the opening round. St. John’s is the more athletic team, without a doubt, but in a game where points could come at a premium, execution and outside shooting will be the difference.
If the Red Storm can’t dictate the tempo, they will be in serious trouble.
No. 12 Akron vs No. 5 Texas Tech
The loss of JT Toppin derailed what looked to be a Final Four-contending team in Lubbock, and the Akron Zips are a bad matchup for the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Since Toppin’s injury, the Red Raiders have seen a serious dip in paint production, FT attempts, and bench output. Their 3-point rate has increased, while their second-chance opportunities have also dropped.
If those outside shots aren’t falling, they’ll be vulnerable. They managed a total of 13 offensive boards against TCU and Iowa State, and shot below 35% from deep in both games — and lost.
Akron ranks Top 10 in eFG%, and Top 15 in accuracy both inside and outside the arc. The Zips knock down FTs when they get to the line, operate at a breakneck pace, and have nine players who can provide offensive output off the bench.
If the Red Raiders go cold from deep, their season could end in a hurry.
