Traders on Kalshi believe Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR) will be acquired this year with a related event contract on the prediction currently residing 80% in “yes” territory.
Kalshi, the largest US prediction market, introduced the “Will Caesars be acquired this year?” yes/no derivative earlier this month on the suggestion of this reporter.
The event contract went live just days after reports surfaced that Caesars was evaluating multiple takeover bids, including one from Tilman Fertitta and a management-led buyout.
The announcement must involve a definitive, binding agreement accompanied by public announcement. Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, or agreements in principle do not qualify.
On one hand, the Caesars takeover bet isn’t going to break any prediction markets volume records. On the other, it is garnering some interest.
Caesars Takeover Talk Quiet for Now
It’s been a week since reports surfaced indicating that Fertitta floated a $34 per share offer for Caesars, topping a $33 a share bid reportedly submitting by Carl Icahn who initiated a new stake in the casino operator in 2024 and was successful in placing two directors on the company’s board.
Kalshi and some competitors that make markets on mergers and acquisitions do offer event contracts tied to specific acquirers — a prime example being the acquirer of Warner Bros. Discovery. In that case, the choices are Netflix, Paramount, or “none.”
More Kalshi Caesars Contract Details
Not surprisingly, Kalshi’s Caesars contract is somewhat dependent on news flow. The derivative traded in a narrow range prior to March 11 — the day reports emerged indicating Fertitta made the aforementioned $34 per share offer.
That speculation sent the price of “yes” contracts to 88 cents. Pricing on those derivatives reached a high of 91 cents on March 13, but have since retreated — a pullback coinciding with a lull in media activity around the purported deal.
Buyers of the “yes” contract on Kalshi have history on their sides. Caesars has gone through four takeovers since 1999. The last was the $17.3 billion 2020 takeover by Eldorado Resorts that created the current iteration of the gaming company.
